Tuesday, November 30, 2010

KAWAN ... Nov10


 Kawan Food’s (KFB) 9MFY10 net profit of RM10.2m came in within our expectations, constituting 68.5% of our FY10 estimate of RM14.9m.

 9M10 net earnings grew by a healthy 9.5% driven by better sales mix and higher sales volume. Overall revenue improved by 4.7% supported by strong sales growth in the domestic market at 13.6% and North America at 7.3%. However, European, Oceania and Asia ex-Malaysia market registered contraction of 5.2%, 13% and 1.7% respectively.

 QoQ revenue and earnings were also higher by 6.1% and 15.6% respectively boosted by seasonal factor and contribution of new plant in Shah Alam and Nantong, China. We also anticipate stronger 4QFY10
earnings as new capacity from the Nantong, China and new Shah Alam plants comes on-stream, in addition to festive seasons to stimulate demand. QoQ EBIT margin is also better at 23.9% compared to 18.8% in
previous quarter, mainly better economies of scale resulted from higher sales volume.

 Earnings estimate for FY10 and FY11 remain unchanged. Given the positive numbers in the current quarter, we are maintaining our FY10 and FY11 earnings forecast at RM14.9m and RM17.7m respectively. In addition balance sheet remains strong with net cash per share of 14 sen.

 Contribution from new plants. We believe that the Nantong and new Shah Alam plants could become earnings drivers for FY11 given the strong export demand as KFB’s existing Shah Alam plant is already running close to maximum utilisation rate. Going forward, KFB has set priority to develop the domestic China market and will develop and launch more innovative products that could cater for different market segments.

 Target price revised upwards to RM1.77 as we roll over our valuation to FY11 EPS of 14.8 sen based on the sector’s 5 years average PE band of 12x PER. With potential upside of 26%, we are maintaining our BUY recommendation on KFB.

Dialog ... Nov10

It anticipates to embark on phase 1 of the RM5 billion independent deepwater petroleum terminal in Pengerang, Johor, early 2011.

Expecting the project to begin contributing to its earnings in its first quarter ending Sept 30, 2011 (1QFY12).

Dialog was awaiting approval from the Department of Environment's environmental impact assessment (EIA) as well as the green light from relevant federal government agencies before starting, noting that the Johor government had approved 500 acres of land for the project site.

The group had spent RM7 million and would invest an additional RM16 million for "detailed study" of the Pengerang project to be completed in the next two to three months.

The Pengerang terminal is one of the two entry-point projects (EPPs) under the enhancing downstream growth thrust that falls within the oil, gas and energy national key economic areas (NKEA).

The project which has three phases is a public-private partnership between the Johor government, Dialog and Vopak Asia Pte Ltd. Dialog would be investing RM2.3 billion in the project of which 30% would come from equity and the 70% from project financing.

Meanwhile Dialog Group Bhd is painting a rosy picture for 2012 with contributions from its RM5 billion independent deepwater petroleum terminal project at Pengerang in Johor, as well the Jubail supply base at the Jubail commercial port in Saudi Arabia.

The contribution from the Pengerang project would come almost immediately as the company designed and built the terminal.

The first phase is expected to be completed in 2013. The second in 2015, while the third will take seven years to complete.

The Jubail supply base project would start soon.

CMSB ... Nov10

It will be sitting on a big pile of cash following the disposal of its 37.21% stake in UBG Bhd to PetroSaudi Intl Ltd for RM465 million.

As at Sept 30, 2010, CMS had RM415 million cash in its coffers, against RM485 million in total borrowings. With sale of the UBG stake completed in Sept 30, 2010, CMS could see its cash pile grow to as much as RM881 million in its next quarter results, translating into net cash of RM395 million or RM1.20 per share.

Talk is that CMS’ cashing of UBG is in time for fundraising for the anticipated 10th state election in Sarawak.

After all, Sarawak Chief Minister Ran Sri Taib and his family own more than 42% of CMS.

Hence speculation is rife that CMS may pay a generous special dividend to shareholders.

CMS is considered an election stock which sees a strong upside, in the months leading up to the Sarawak state election.
UBG held some stakes in Putrajaya Perdana and Loh & Loh.

According to reports, out of the RM465 million proceeds, CMS said it planned to use RM353 million to invest in projects in the SCORE. The remaining RM111 million would be used to repay PPES Works’ loans totaling RM88 million.

However, since March 2010, CMS has yet to announce the projects in SCORE that will utilise its cash proceeds from the disposal of the UBG stake. Its latest (Nov 2010) announcements said that it is still in negotiations with NAIM and Bintulu Development for the development of the Samalaju township and industrial park.

There has been much talk about the money being channeled into its smelter project and SCORE but management has not said anything since its announcement in early 2010.

As such it is not surprising that word is spreading in the market that part of the proceeds raised from the sale of UBG could possibly be used to pay dividends, ahead of the state election.

Monday, November 29, 2010

SCOMI ... Nov10

Scomi Group Bhd is making further inroads into the urban rail market in India.

The alliance between Scomi Group and state-owned Engineering Projects (India) Ltd (EPI) will see both firms exploring, in the immediate term, monorail and mass rapid transit (MRT) construction jobs in at least three cities in India, as well as two South Asian countries.

Both companies would collaborate in joint ventures or consortiums identified by either party in India and abroad. They intended to explore engineering, procurement and construction projects.

The partnership will look at raising funds specific to each project. Scomi and EPI would continue to seek support from financial institutions in India for these projects.

To recap, Scomi Group Bhd’s 67.3%-subsidiary Scomi Engineering Bhd recently signed a three-year memorandum of understanding with EPI to jointly undertake monorail and MRT projects in India and global markets.

Scomi Group is not new to the Indian urban transportation landscape. Together with its India-based partner Larsen & Toubro Ltd it secured the first monorail project in Mumbai worth some RM1.8 billion in November 2008.

Scomi Group is also eyeing monorail jobs in Brazil.

Net profit in 2QFY10 ended June 30 fell to RM3.62 million, or 0.26 sen a share compared with RM20.85 million or 2.07 sen a share a year earlier. Revenue fell 17.3% to RM429.3 million from  RM518.87 million.

Earlier Nov 2010, speculation that new major shareholders in the form of Indonesian investors and Middle Eastern funds may emerge in the company. Scomi Group denied market talk on the matter.

SILKHLD ... Nov10

SILK Holdings Bhd is awaiting government approval to raise by 30 sen the toll rate at the Kajang Traffic Dispersal Ring Road. The present rate is RM1.

They are merely going by the terms of the concession agreement that require them to request for a toll hike every five years.

The company was not proposing something new to the government but merely following what has been agreed to by both parties in the concession agreement.

On the marine division, SILK is expected to acquire four vessels over the next two years as part of the fleet renewal programme. This is an initiative by the company to replace old vessels with newer ones which are equipped with more modern equipment. The new vessels can be deployed for deep water operations.

SILK, through wholly-owned subsidiary Sistem Lingkaran Lebuhraya Kajang Sdn Bhd (Kajang-SILK), is the concession holder of the Kajang Traffic Dispersal Ring Road, which started operations on July 15, 2004.

Its subsidiary in the marine division, Jasa Merin (M) Sdn Bhd, is an offshore marine support services provider. Operating with 12 vessels currently, Jasa Merin's main activity is providing offshore support vessel services on medium-to-long-term charters to oil and gas companies such as Petronas Carigali, ExxonMobil, Murphy and Petrofac.

Sunday, November 28, 2010

Saturday, November 27, 2010

New Scam Tactic, be alert !

Any cheque banked in into your account need a few days to transact. Although the amount appears in your account, but it's still pending for transaction, the person issue the cheque can cancel the cheque at any time!

A few days ago, one of my friends received a sms with the message:

"You've strike 1st prize with a prize money of RMB200,000 cash."  The sms came with a contact no.  My friend ignored it since he had heard of too many bogus scams using similar tactics.

After a short while his handphone rang, a Miss Fang asked:

"Sir have you received a sms telling you that you've strike 1st prize?"

My friend answered: "Yes, I have"

Miss Fang: "Please let us have your bank account number so that we can deposit the money into your account."

My friend thought, why not, let's see what you can do.  My friend has a buddy who works in that bank. Hence, he gave her his account number.

Ten minutes later, my friend's handphone started ringing again.

Miss Fang said: "Sir, we have deposited your prize money into your account, please check and verify."

My friend checked using his handphone and found that RMB200,000 was really deposited into his account.  He was euphoric, just like that and he's RMB200,000 richer!

30 minutes later, Miss Fang called again.

She was crying: "I'm sorry sir, I made a mistake,  I forgot to deduct the tax before I deposited the prize money, 20% of RMB 200,000 equals to RMB40,000. Now the company wants me to reimburse the money.

Can you please return the RMB40,000 tax?  I beg you."

My friend thought for a while and felt pity for the lady.  Thinking of the money in his bank account, he went to the bank.

Suddenly he thought of his buddy working in that bank and decided to ask his buddy to double check and confirm for him first.

Upon checking, his buddy found out that the money was deposited using a cheque of a different bank.

Even though the cheque was deposited but the actual amount of money can't be transfered into his account on the same day. If the other party decided to cancel the cheque, then he'll not get this RMB200,000.

My friend was shocked.  He almost lost RMB40,000.

Before my friend left for home on that day, the cheque was actually cancelled. If not for his buddy, if not for him being a professional, or if he was cared of letting others know of striking the prize then this bogus scam
would be successful.  This is a true story, please beware.

Future scams could be even better planned.  Please don't forget to forward to your friends and relatives to warn them from being cheated.

Friday, November 26, 2010

TA ... Nov10

TA Enterprise Bhd (TAE) was the country’s leading stockbroking firm with an entrenched retail franchise in the 1990s before the Asian financial crisis struck in 1997.

Back then the group, co-founded by Datuk Tony Tiah Thee Kian and his wife Datin Alicia Tiah, used to own stakes in securities firms and commercial banks as far as in South Africa and the Philippines, and stockbroking businesses in Hong Kong, Indonesia and Australia.

Tiah is the executive chairman and major shareholder of TAE, while Alicia who has been running the group in the past 10 years, is the group’s managing director and CEO.

When the Asian financial crisis hit Malaysia, TAE sold its assets abroad to concentrate on its home operations that needed the financial resources for mergers to obtain the universal broker (UB) licence in the early 2000s.

But until now (Nov 2010), TAE has yet to obtain its UB licence. Neither is it an investment bank although it had met the merger requirements set by the Securities Commission (SC).

According to filings with Bursa Malaysia, the SC has imposed several conditions on TAE and its major shareholders to obtain the UB status, including Tiah to declare his effective shareholding in the group and assign voting rights of shares in excess of 20% of his collective stake to independent trustees. Also, Tiah had to trim his shareholding to 20% or below.

It is worth noting that in May 2002, Tiah was fined RM3 million after he pleaded guilty to a charge of allowing a false report to be furnished to the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange in relation to the Omega Securities fraud case. The group decided not to apply for an investment banking licence. The reason for this was due to the fact that the domestic investment banking landscape is today (2010) dominated by several big players, and the market was not as vibrant as before.

The fact that TAE did not expand its domestic branch network aggressively unlike its peers, such as OSK Holdings Bhd and Hwang-DBS (M) Bhd, could be evident that the couple’s interest in stockbroking has waned.

Indeed, the TA group appears more interested in property than stockbroking. It is the biggest land owner in the KLCC area. These assets are now held under its property arm, TA Global Bhd, which was listed last year. Tiah is also the single largest shareholder in TA Global owning a 26.8% stake.

Some industry players reckon the group’s lack of expansion in the stockbroking business — and the shift in focus towards property — may possibly be a prelude to the divestment of the former.

In February 2004, TAE had indeed wanted to hive off its stockbroking business to CIMB Bhd for RM400 million in exchange for shares in the latter. Apparently, the deal fell through. 

Although TA is no longer the largest stockbroker in Malaysia, it continues to be a formidable force in retail stockbroking, with over 400 remisiers.

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Bpuri ... Nov10


- 9M10 net profit of RM8.8m came in only at 50% of our full year forecast due to immaterial contribution from LCCT project in the 3Q10. Nonetheless, if we strip out the LCCT progress contributions for
FY10, the 9M10 net profit is within expectation at 73%. The net profit recorded for the year jumped by 101% due to more project secured during the year and the completion of the ongoing works coupled by higher net margin. We expect some RM6m contribution from LCCT project for FY10 which will only be recognised in the 4Q10.

- YoY, revenue higher by 42%. The jump in revenue was mainly due to building up order book from its construction business from c. RM1.5b in FY09 to RM2.7b in FY10. The net profit inched up by 83% to RM3.3m due to the absence of loss making property division recorded in 3Q09. Following the Medini North project in Johor Bahru, we do not expect immediate earnings contribution from this division.

- QoQ, net profit drops 7% on the back of higher revenue by 10%. The lower net profit was mainly due to higher building material cost (both cement and steel) coupled by higher financing cost by 5%. The construction pre-tax margin was reduced from 1.5% to 1.2%.

- Order book remains healthy at RM2.7b for the next 3 years. The earnings visibility is mainly on its outstanding order book for the next 3 years while banking on more stable income starting in 1Q11 from Kuala Lumpur-Kuala Selangor Ekspressway (KLS) which currently undergoing trial basis. Bina Puri holds 60% stake in KLS which the remaining 40% held by Arena Irama Sdn Bhd.

- Beneficiaries on LRT project. In riding on the construction sector prospect and the Group’s capability to secure government related projects, we believe that Bina Puri will be one of the beneficiaries for the LRT
projects which expected to be announced sometime next month.

- Maintain BUY with slightly higher TP of RM1.79 from RM1.77 previously. We trimmed down our FY11 earnings by 9% as we imputedhigher financing cost to reflect the potential gearing up to undertake more
projects. We upgrade our TP as we rolled our valuation to FY11 using unchanged 10x PE multiple.

Etitech ... Nov10

It is in talks with the Perak state government to jointly set up an energy storage plant at a designated green technology park in Meru, near Ipoh.

If the plan materialises, the company, which provides renewable energy storage solutions, expects to spend some RM100 million on the plant and related equipment.

Eventually, its revenue will continue to come mainly from its mobile charging devices such as for mobile phones and notebooks. But solar application will eventually become one of its major streams of income in future.

ETI was working closely with various government departments and agencies to implement the solar application for its lithium battery projects in remote and rural areas in the country.

The company also signed a business development agreement with Green Electric Sdn Bhd and Erapolitan Sdn Bhd to jointly bid for contracts to supply power via the grid system from the Ministry of Education and Ministry of Rural and Regional Development.

ETI is also looking at expanding its business to Southeast Asian countries, China and India.

Its mission is to become a regional supplier of renewable energy storage system.

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Fajar ... Nov10


- 3M11 net profit of RM4.2m came in line with our expectations and consensus at 14% and 15%, respectively. The net profit jumped by 21% to RM4.2m on the back of 30% reduced in revenue. A strong start for FY11 was mainly due to higher net margin from recently secured projects like double track railway project (southern) and Tampin Hospital project. However, the drop in revenue was attributed to lower progressive billings as most of the projects have been completed in FY10.

- YoY, net profit jumps 21% on lucrative net margin. Despite of drop in revenue, the net profit jumped 21% on the back of improving net margin at 15% as compared to 12%,YoY from the new project secured ie: Tampin Hospital, double track railway and shrimp project in Terengganu.

- QoQ, slower revenue by 37%. The net profit was lower by 60% due to slower progressive billings during the quarter coupled with higher building material cost and the bad debts written back during the preceding quarter. Fajarbaru balance sheet remains healthy with net cash position at 75sen per share.

- Order book worth c. RM350m until FY12. Following the recent project award in the ECER region, we expect Fajarbaru to benefit from the next construction sector run up especially from the LRT extension project. We understand that the award of the project for Phase 1 which worth up to c. RM3b for Ampang and Kelana Jaya Line is expected by end of the year. The management has also indicated that Fajarbaru is bidding for construction for LRT railway track worth RM2b.

- Maintain BUY with unchanged TP at RM1.51. No change to our earnings forecast for FY11 and FY12. We like Fajarbaru as one of our top pick in construction due to its favourable deliverables in terms of margin and as one of the beneficiary for the promising construction outlook in CY11 while trading at only 7.4x PE compared to its peers of 10x.

MEGB ... Nov10

National Higher Education Fund Corporation (PTPTN) chairman Datuk Ismail Mohamed Said said the national education loan fund was confident of collecting 70% of the payments owed to it once its new database system was operational.

The recently released National Audit Report 2009 warned that PTPTN’s revolving funds could run critically low as it had only managed to collect 48% of its loans in the last three years (2008-2010). In the report, Auditor-General Tan Sri Ambrin Buang set a 70% collection rate target for PTPTN.

The Public Accounts Committee’s (PAC)’s audit report found that many PTPTN borrowers had been making late payments due, in part, to delays by PTPTN in issuing letters of claim for repayment. This was in turn due to PTPTN’s unintegrated and semi-automated systems.

In 2009, PTPTN had only recovered RM1.51 billion or 47% of the RM3.19 billion due that year. As at Dec 31, 2009, PTPTN had approved payments totaling RM31.39 billion for 1.46 million borrowers.

One of the more startling points raised by the audit report was that PTPTN’s own projection showed that it would face a cash flow deficit of RM45.89 billion until the 11th Malaysia Plan (11MP), from 2016 to 2020.

As such, PTPTN would need additional funds of RM21.66 billion under the 11MP, RM15.67 billion under the 10th Malaysia Plan (2011-2015) and RM8.56 billion under the Ninth Malaysia Plan (2006-2010), the report said.

According to the audit report, PTPTN had required RM14.1 billion in funds from 2007 to 2009 and had obtained long-term borrowings (five- and 10-year loans) totaling RM16 billion, of which RM14 billion was guaranteed by the government.
PTPTN also receives subsidies from the Ministry of Finance to pay for borrowing costs of RM6.29 billion.

The bulk of PTPTN’s loans are from the Employees Provident Fund (EPF), amounting to RM12 billion. PTPTN has also borrowed RM1.5 billion from CIMB Bank Bhd, AmBank (Malaysia) Bhd and RM500 million from the Retirement Fund Inc (KWAP).

The national auditors also noted that PTPTN’s borrowing costs had increased its financial burden, given that the interest rates ranged between 3.6% to 5.3% compared with the 1% to 3% interest imposed by PTPTN on its borrowers.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010


Penang-based property developer Tambun Indah Land Bhd (TILB) seeks to raise RM22.4mil from its upcoming initial public offering (IPO) to boost its war chest.

It played down the likelihood of the company expanding into the Klang Valley.

The IPO involved the sale of 54.1 million shares in TILB at an offer price of 70 sen a share. Of the 22.4mil proceeds, RM12.7 will be used for working capital.

TILB has some 85.8ha of land bank, mostly located in the southern part of Seberang Prai. It also has the option to acquire another 40.5ha in this area.

P & O ... Nov10

Pacific & Orient Bhd’s (P&O) insurance business is believed to still be on the radar of other foreign parties despite Prudential Holdings Ltd dropping out of the acquisition talks for the local general insurer.

Sources say one of the interested parties eyeing the insurance business of P&O is an insurer from the North Asian region. They are exploring the possibility of acquiring the business... The insurer is studying the company [P&O] and should they decide to go ahead with the buy, they will write to Bank Negara Malaysia for approval to start formal negotiations.

One of the reasons the talks between P&O and Prudential fell through was because both parties could not agree on the pricing. It is understood that the asking price for P&O’s insurance business is somewhere along the region of two times price-to-book ratio… that is using the latest local general insurer transaction — Jerneh [Insurance Bhd] — as a benchmark.

The book value of P&O’s insurance business stood at RM160 million in July 2010.

Apart from the latest set-back, P&O’s share price may have also come under pressure due 

to a potential share overhang from its recently completed private placement exercise. The company had undertaken a 10% private placement exercise of 5.25 million shares at 99 sen per share. The shares were listed on Oct 20 2010.

Following the exercise, P&O’s share base increased to 236.34 million shares. Its net assets per share stood at 72 sen on June 30 2010.

Monday, November 22, 2010

GPacket ... Nov10

Loss-making Green Packet Bhd, which is burning cash for capital expenditure and customer acquisition, is on track to be profitable at the operating level by 1QFY11 ending March 31.

It said the company would record (Ebitda) profits “latest by the first quarter of the financial year 2011”, if not in 4QFY10 ending Dec 31. There is also a high chance that we may be able to register Ebitda breakeven by the end of 2010.

Its Ebitda margins have continued to improve over the past quarters and are at its best position ever over the last two years. So the turnaround is at the corner if it reaches 280,000 subscribers and are able to reach 90% of its purchase orders on hand.

The company would be able to break even earlier than the targeted 1QFY10 if it achieved the targeted number of 280,000 subscribers. It must also be able to ship at least 500,000 WiMAX devices worldwide to achieve that target.

The company currently (Nov 2010) has 220,000 subscribers for WiMAX service. It has exceeded the shipment target for WiMAX devices and has more than 530,000 devices pending in purchase orders.

It posted net losses of RM13.71 million in the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2010, a decline from the net loss of RM31.84 million a year ago and expects margin erosion in the competitive broadband and voice business segments

Revenue rose 60% to RM100.89 million from RM63.03 million. Loss per share was 2.1 sen versus eight sen. The net loss was lower in the just ended quarter due to an improvement in turnover.

Of the RM100.89 million in revenue, software, devices and engineering services accounted for RM25.56 million, up 169.4% from RM9.49 million a year ago, broadband services and solutions (RM55.16 million or up 37.7% from RM40.07) and communication/voice services (RM20.17 or up 49.6% from RM13.48 million).

Green Packet’s total borrowings as at Sept 30 totalled RM237.01 million. Its total turnover was the nine-month period was RM277.71 million compared with RM160.99 million while loss per share was RM56.82 million compared with RM81.93 million

Green Packet has spent about RM100 million on capital expenditure year to date (N0v 2010) and it is aiming to fix 2,500 more base stations with its remaining RM500 million allocated for the next two years (2011-2012). Over the years, Green Packet has already incurred RM534 million in capital expenditure.

Its second and third phase (of building base stations) is 40% cheaper than its first phase due to initial capex has already included some of its backend data centre network operating centre.

Tenaga ... Nov10

Rumors are rife that next on Khazanah’s list to pare down its stake is Tenaga, in which the former holds 35.6% stake. Such a move could help improve the overall liquidity of Tenaga’s stock and give it a push.

The reasoning that has been put forth is the recent sharp drop (end Oct 2010) in Tenaga’s share price given that there has been no fundamental change in the company. The last time Khazanah placed out Tenaga shares, the counter behaved in a similar manner – the other stakeholders tend to sell down to bring down the price. Then, when the placement comes, the shares can be bought back at a cheaper price.

Khazanah’s last placement of Tenaga shares was on Dec 11, 2009, where it disposed of 2% equity stake at RM8.10 a share. At the time shares were trading at RM8.30 to RM8.40, which means Khazanah made its disposal at a slight discount to the market price.

If a similar discount were applied to Tenaga’s current price (mid Nov 2010), Khazanah could be looking to sell the shares about RM8.55 apiece or more.

As Khazanah’s last divestment in Tenaga ii coming up to a year, an announcement could be made over the next two weeks (Nov 2010-Dec 2010). However, Khazanah’s timing may coincide with Tenaga making a significant announcement before the year ends (2010). Tenaga reported that it was close to securing the rights to build a new combined cycle gas turbine in Egypt with a local partner.

Given that Tenaga’s overseas ventures have been few and far between, the announcement of a new project will help attract investor interest. The usual short term catalyst that investors look for Tenaga is a tariff hike, which most believe is unlikely to happen anytime soon.

Timing the placement after announcement of the gas turbine could prove beneficial to Khazanah. While it may push Tenaga’s share price up, it would also make it a more attractive counter, increasing the chances of the placement succeeding.

Others say the drop in Tenaga’s share price could be mainly to coal fears rather than talk of a Khazanah placement. At the moment, the price of coal is expected to continue to rise in coming months.

Sunday, November 21, 2010


Please be Careful at the Airports,  This is a well organized conspiracy by Immigration, Police, Customs and Airline staff with networking at all International Airports. Be careful when ever you give your  passport to Immigration/Customs/Airline staff. The pass port can be easily tampered and can create trouble to you. They have found an easy way of making money. This is the way it works:

At the time of the passenger's departure, if the passenger is not looking at the officer while he is stamping the exit, the  officer very cleverly tears away one of the page  from the passport. When the passenger leaves the immigration counter, the case is reported on his computer terminal with full details. Now all over the country they have got full details of the  passenger with Red Flag flashing on the Passport  number entered by the departure immigration officer. They have made their money by doing above.

On arrival next time, he is interrogated.

Subject to the passenger's  period of stay abroad, his income and standing etc., the price to get rid of the problem is  settled by the Police and Immigration people. If someone argues, his future is spoiled because  there are always some innocent fellows who think the honesty is the basis of getting justice.

Please advise every passenger to be careful at the airports. Whenever they hand over the passport to the counters of Airlines or immigration or the customs, they must be  vigilant, should not remove eyes from the passport even if the officer in front tries to  divert their attention.

Also, please pass  this information to all friends, media men and important politicians. Every month 20-30 cases  are happening all over the world to rob the passenger the minute he lands.

A similar case happened with Aramco's Arifuddin in Pakistan . He was travelling with his family.  They had six passports. They got the visa of America and decided to go via Jeddah. When they reached the States, the page of the American visa on his wife's passport was missing. At the  time of departure from Pakistan it was there,  the whole family had to return helplessly. On arrival at Pakistan , they were  caught by the police and now it is over 2 months, they are running after the Police, Immigration officers and the Courts. On going in  to details with him, he found out the following: One cannot imagine, neither can believe, that  the Immigration dept can play such a nasty game to harass the innocent passengers.

All the airlines passengers must be aware of this conspiracy. Every month 15 to 20 cases are taking place, at each mentioned airport, of holding the passengers in the crime of tearing away the passport pages. On interviewing some of them, none of them was aware of what had happened. They don't know why, when and who tore away the page from the middle of the passport. One can imagine the sufferings  of such people at the hands of the immigration, police and the court procedures after that. The number of cases has increased in the  last 2-3 years. People who are arriving at the immigration, they are questioned and their passports are being held and they have to go in for detailed interrogation. Obviously, the conspiracy started about 2 to 3 years ago, now the results are coming. Some of the Airline counter staff too is involved in this conspiracy.




I think at least have a full photo copy of Passport and keep scan of your passport in your hard drive or flash memory and i will advise same for ticket also.

Saturday, November 20, 2010

10 Things To Watch Out For In An Overheated Market

In this article, we look at 10 things that investors need to understand and follow to avoid common investing blunders in an overheated market.
Author : iFAST Content Team

1. Don’t let emotions overrule economics
Investors usually go through an entire cycle of emotions which replicate the ups and downs in the stock market (see Chart 1). The Equity Sentiment Roadmap showcases typical investor behavior. Often, investor sentiments graduate from optimism to euphoria as the markets inch higher towards all-time highs, as witnessed in the previous bull runs of 1990s, the dot-com era of 2000 and the recent 2008 phase. The extreme emotions are reflected even during the market crash wherein there is a panic sell-off by investors to limit their losses. In each of these periods emotions control the investor behaviour rather than the economics.

For example, at the helm of dot-com phase, some investors invested in IT companies whose valuations were at extremely high levels and so was investor confidence!

No doubt these companies were good but they were mispriced. Eventually when the markets corrected, investors had to exit at a loss. An immediate outcome of such an unpleasant experience is that investors prefer to stay away from the markets. Again this is an extreme alternative.

To create wealth and avoid pitfalls of emotional decision-making, a simple mantra can be –

    * Thoroughly cross-check fundamentals and sentiments before stock selection
    * Gauge how the possible loss on the investment will affect you, and
    * Have realistic return expectations

Read more to understand and avoid common investing blunders in an overheated market…
Chart 1: The Equity Sentiment Roadmap
source: Denver Investment Advisors LLC, 1998

2. Check for lemons
Companies do well on the exchanges mainly due to their historical and forward earnings expectations, growth prospects, virtue of the business, robust top management and governance practices. So, retail investors should look at companies who have consistently delivered in terms of earnings growth, capital expansion, dividend yield, and have a strong leadership. . While this task may be excruciating, companies who are fundamentally solid would continue to give handsome gains whether or not the market is overheated.  On the contrary, certain stocks may be rallying on account of liquidity and momentum in the market but such an upside may not be sustainable. Hence, it is important for investors to track and maintain a supplementary portfolio for high risk securities in an overheated market.

3. Say NO to amateur turned expert
In an overheated market, everyone has their own basket of ‘hot tips’ and market advice and most often, even the not-so-great stocks are rated highly. Before relying on these so called ‘hot tips’ one should keep in mind that they may come with inherent risks that may not be suitable to your portfolio. A thorough understanding of the security, the risk adjusted returns and future potential ought to be known to you as an investor. Else, a better way to invest is to take services of a qualified adviser with good credentials or invest in mutual funds which are managed by professional fund managers.

4. Ask for ‘value for money’
A typical trait of overheated market is that valuations become overly expensive and euphoria drives the market upwards. We always look for ‘value for money’ deals for simple things like a cheese burger but quite often overlook valuations while buying financial assets. On a retail level, it may be difficult to keep track of the Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio or Price to Book Value (P/BV) of companies. Also, the past laggards may not necessarily become top performers of tomorrow. Nonetheless, while buying financial assets, investors need to be mindful of the current valuations and future potential of a sector, theme and stock.

Mutual funds offer Value Funds category which follow value style of investing wherein these funds pick up companies which are currently undervalued compared to the rest of the market. But in an overheated market, it is likely that very few solid companies remain below their actual value. Despite this, Value funds which strictly adhere to the value philosophy are suitable for investors with a time horizon of more than 3-5 years.

5. Rebalance your portfolio
Sophisticated investors who have the expertise and time should monitor their holdings and re-balance the stock portfolio, particularly in an overheated market. Notably, informed investors should set a ceiling on expected return and shift profits into fixed income asset or another optimal investment once the return target has been met. Rebalancing portfolios in a disciplined manner maximises returns to akin to the stop-loss mechanism used to restrict losses.

6. Know that the market is a collection of participants
Large and institutional players can easily dominate the market owing to their sheer size and better access to information. Huge momentum plays by the market participants can occur, at times escalating the stock prices; similarly, these stock prices get beaten down to their intrinsic value over time with lack of interest. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) usually have allocation to countries and regions across the globe. Therefore, the nature of flows in Malaysia and other markets is inter-connected. Based on the relative valuation, appetite for risk, and macro-economic circumstances across the world the flows into or out of Malaysia are determined. These inflows and outflows, again, affect market levels as well as prices of individual stocks irrespective of any major fundamental changes.

7. Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful
Warren Buffet, investment guru, has given an excellent dictum particularly true for extreme market scenarios when the valuations are either stretched or at rock bottoms. Though, investors most likely follow general market consensus, this quote may help you assess your holdings through the irrational exuberance which is most dominant in an overheated market.

8. Avoid impatience  
What if you have already invested in an overheated market? Well, this is a tricky situation. Investors end up holding a loss-making investment for too long. Yet, there are some who average out the investment trying to reduce the purchase price but it will work well only if the stock recovers from the low levels. On the other hand, if the price falls further, you may end up with even higher negative returns. Eventually, the stock may go back to the same level in the long term but that may not serve your investment purpose.

Instead of chasing flashy returns overnight, investors should follow all the above principles and stick to good quality companies at fair valuations or simply, invest in equity funds.

9. Accept that equity market has aberrations but delivers returns in the long term
The stock markets experience volatility and witness periodical cycles depending on favourable market environment, economic policies and liquidity. Most experts would agree that equity outperforms all other asset classes in the long run. Especially in a high growth economy like India having perpetually high levels of inflation, investors stand to gain more by allocating some of their savings to the equity asset class. Hence, it is important to invest regularly in piecemeal irrespective of the market levels.

10. Worry about your financial plan and not the market movements
Most of asset bubbles in the history have left not just retail investors but biggest experts, fund managers and bankers perplexed. Who would have imagined Lehman Brothers could collapse or AIG would file for bankruptcy?

Therefore, investors should first evaluate their savings and major expenses, identify the investment objectives and then, allocate money systematically every month towards achieving their financial goals. Align the maturity of investment products to your major expenses plus book timely profits according to your monetary needs and don’t miss out on buying opportunities whenever the markets are relatively cheap. A disciplined approach to investing and wise asset allocation will reap benefits for you in the long term and you will never have to worry about Mr. Markets!