Thursday, April 5, 2012

NextNat ... Apr12

TA Securities

- Nextnation Communication Berhad (NNCB) posted a strong 9MFY12 results which exceeded our
expectations by 12%. The variance was mainly due to 1) higher-than-anticipated revenue from domestic
sales and 2)better margins.

- Turnaround in bottom line is expected. Despite a 14.2% drop in revenue, NNCB’s 9MFY12 core net
profit grew>100%% to RM1.7mn, signaling a fast recovery as efforts to streamline operations bear
fruit.

- Overall net margin improved +2.5ppt YoY as the groupis now able to partially pass on the additional
input costs to customers by increasing the pricing of the products and services.

Impact
- We tweak our FY12 earnings higher by 24% after factoring in better revenues and margins from
the Malaysian operation. FY13-14 earnings are revised upwards by 3% each year, corresponding
with higher estimated FY12 performance.

Earnings outlook
- According to management, the strong 3Q was the result of recognizing unbilled revenues of those services rendered in the 1H due to late submission of traffic reports by its customers. In spite of a robust 3Q, we are expecting a normalized 4Q net profit of RM0.5mn - RM0.7mn, based on the average quarterly earnings achieved over the last 3 quarters.

- We continue to believe NNCB’s earnings outlook over the next three years appears to be buoyant,
given that it has secured an outsourcing agreement from Inovisi which could provide a minimum revenue guarantee of USD22.5mn (RM67.6mn) over a 3-year period.


- We also expect NNCB’s existing business to stage better performance going forward as the group
continued to step up efforts for further market penetration into Malaysia and Indonesia through
development of new technologies, products and services.

- To recap, NNCB has proposed to undertake a fund raising exercise which comprises an issue of free
warrants and private placement on Wednesday. We learned from management yesterday that the
proposed fund raising exercise can be concluded by 3Q12. Assuming a placement price of 11.3sen/share
(5-day VWAP), the proposed exercise would dilute our FY13-14 EPS by estimated 25-33%.

Valuation
- We now imputing the earnings dilution effect from the share placement and bonus warrants into our
earnings model. As the proceeds from share placement and exercise of the warrants are expected
to be earnings-generating as the funds will be utilized to fund its future expansion plan, we revise our
valuation to RM0.13/share from RM0.16/share previously, based on a revised PE of 12x CY13EPS.
Given the potential upside of 18%, we reiterate our Buy recommendation on Nextnation.

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