Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Mudajaya ... Dec12

It is now in net cash position and has been a dividend-yielding stock. Despite that concerns are still surrounding its Indian independent power producer (IPP) project.

In 2006, Mudajaya ventured into the Indian power sector by taking a 26% stake in RKM Powergen Pte Ltd via subsidiary Mudajaya Corp Bhd in undertaking a 1,440MW coal-fired IPP project in Chhattisgarh, India. The project comprises four generating units with a nominal capacity of 360MW each.

RKM is one of the IPPs that have yet to ink the fuel-supply agreement (FSA) with Coal India Ltd due to the coal-supply deadlock.

The project is still on track despite fears of delays but once the Indian power plant goes into full swing, it will be the company's earnings driver, going forward, as sales of electricity will trickle in.

The IPP would be a “turning point” for Mudajaya, as it will lift the company from being a pure construction player to an IPP and provide the company with a stable recurring income rather than its current cyclical revenue from construction.

Earnings from the Indian IPP is estimated to contribute some 20% to Mudajaya's bottom line.

Its management stated that the power plant in Chhattisgarh is making significant progress and is expected to be commissioned in July 2013.

The imminent signing of the Indian IPP's FSA remains a key share price catalyst, along with potential new contracts. Mudajaya.

However checks indicate that the progress of construction at the Chhattisgarh project may have faced more delays due to unfavourable weather as well as labour shortages.

It appears that the first unit of its 4x360MW power plant will only be completed by end of first quarter 2013, versus the end of the current financial year ending Dec 31, 2012 (FY12) previously, with the remaining three units expected to come on stream on a staggered basis after three months thereafter.

Mudajaya currently has profits coming from its equipment procurement contract in India.

The Indian IPP is tax-free for the first 10 years and is expected to provide Mudajaya with a good income stream.

With RM419.49mil in cash, Mudajaya intends to make a significant purchase in the region, possibly a power plant, to boost its recurring income by becoming an IPP itself. It is looking at maybe 50% to 60% of its income to come from recurring income including IPPs, tolled highways and property projects in five to six years from 2012.

Mudajaya's revenue, which is now (Dec 2012) derived mainly from construction, will shift significantly once its recurring income increases. Currently, it has negligible recurring income.

Mudajaya's orderbook stood at RM2.8bil as of Sept 30 2012 that will last the company for the next three to four years. It has tendered for RM5bil worth of projects, mainly targeting the power plants, highways and building.

Mudajaya's power plant expansion may increase the company's construction order book and provide it with another source of steady earnings when concession profits kick in.

Mudajaya has no urgent need to raise fresh funding, given its net cash position, and can expect to soon enjoy a larger stream of recurring income. However, Mudajaya will be going to the bond market in 2013 to further boost its coffer.

The company's capital expenditure (capex) for FY13 will not be significant but is expected to rise in FY14 and FY15 to RM400mil to RM500mil as it takes on more projects. Its current capex is around RM200mil.

In its third-quarter announcement, Mudajaya declared a second interim single-tier dividend of 12.5% (or 2.5 sen) per ordinary share of 20 sen each. For the first nine months to Sept 30, Mudajaya posted a higher net profit of RM189.89mil, or 34.86 sen earnings per share, against RM164.5mil, or 30.18 sen per share, in the corresponding period a year ago.

As at Sept 30, shareholders funds stood at RM1.09bil and net assets per share at RM2.

Mudajaya fares better on home turf with civil works for the Janamanjung and Tanjung Bin power plant extension running on track.

Mudajaya is in negotiations with the Government for a building-type job worth more than RM200mil. Under this contract, Mudajaya will be paid via land where it intends to embark on a township development.

Mudajaya has also submitted its pre-qualification tender for the 1,300MW gas-fired plant at the Refinery and Petrochemical Integrated Development in Pengerang, Johor.

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