Friday, April 19, 2013

Tenaga ... Apr13

It is expected to benefit substantially from the sliding yen, given its sizeable exposure to the currency.

It was not unusual for TNB to be among the top beneficiaries, given its sizeable foreign debt. Likewise, TNB would see its interest and principal repayments increase in a firmer yen scenario.

As at Nov 30, 2012, TNB had RM4.71bil yen-denominated loans, accounting for about 21% of its total outstanding loans of RM22.4bil. Its US dollar-denominated loans during the period stood at RM2.76bil. Its total ringgit equivalent of foreign currency borrowings is RM7.47bil.

A 10% decline in the yen vis-vis the ringgit over an extended one-year period would bring about an incremental RM470mil of forex translation gain or 12% against estimated net profit forecast of RM3.78bil for financial year ending Aug 31, 2012.

TNB is expected to announce its financial results on April 19 2013.

However critics say that the weaker yen might only mean a paper gain for TNB unless the company had actually made payments for its yen-denominated loans.

Its share price (April 2013) has charted new highs lately on expectations of an improved financial performance and lower coal prices.

TNB is currently (April 2013) bidding for two new coal-fired power plants of 1,000MW (Project 3A) and 2x1,000MW (Project 3B).

As TNB continues to rally, TNB is already earning higher-than-usual return on invested capital at present (April 2013), in part due to Government aid (subsidised gas, and oil and distillates compensation). Any industry reforms are unlikely to materially boost TNB's profitability. In fact, do not rule out the possibility of TNB's profitability being squeezed.

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