Tuesday, June 14, 2011

DRBHcom ... Jun11

It is well-positioned to post strong earnings growth across all three of its business divisions in the coming years.

DRB-Hicom is on track to begin making its maiden deliveries of vehicles to
Volkswagen (VW) by end-2011.

VW’s aggressive strategy to be the global automotive leader by 2018 involves
increasing its global footprint and presence in emerging markets. The defence equipment business is also set to be a major contributor from the RM7.5 billion armoured wheeled vehicles contract. Hardware deliveries are expected to commence in earnest in 2012 contributing to FY13 earnings.

To date, DRB-Hicom’s property development business has been relatively piecemeal and lacking scale, focused on developing legacy landbank. The acquisition of 614ha of development land in the heart of the Iskandar Development Region in Johor will transform DRB-Hicom into a significant property developer. Estimate that the township development could have a gross development value of over RM5 billion over the next 10 years.

The acquisition of a 32.2% stake in Pos Malaysia for RM622.8 million from Khazanah Nasional Bhd. The sovereign wealth fund is expected to complete the transfer by mid-2011. Management’s immediate priority is to contribute to the streamlining of its core postal businesses, including growing the postal operator’s mail, courier, and retail businesses, including strategic alliances with domestic and global players to make further inroads into the logistics sector.

Improved investor understanding of the group’s myriad businesses could reduce the valuation discount to other conglomerate peers as well as the higher than average holding company discount of 25% used to derive our sum-of-parts fair value.

The key risks include: (i) lower car sales; (ii) unfavourable forex movements; (iii) higher interest rates; (iv) prolonged disruption to the global automotive supply chain; and (v) rising fuel costs.

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