Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Genting ... Jul12

TA Securities Research...

Signing of power purchase agreement with PLN
Genting has made a significant inroad into the IPP development in Indonesia after its 95%-owned subsidiary PT Lestari Banten Energi and its local partner, namely PT Hero Into Pratama, entered into a 25-year power
purchase agreement with PT PLN, the Indonesian state-owned electricity company. Genting’s bid for the project involves the financing, design, procurement, construction, commissioning, operation and maintenance of a coal-fired power plant with a gross generating capacity of 660MW and its support facilities in Banten Province, West Java, Indonesia. The plant shall be developed and operated on a build, own, operate and transfer basis for a period of 25 years, following which, the Banten plant shall be transferred to PLN for a nominal consideration.

US$1bn development cost needed
The successful bid has increased Genting group’s combined power generating capacity to 2,110MW in Malaysia, China, India and Indonesia. The estimated cost of Banten plant is approximately US$1bn or
US$1.5mn/MW. It is expected to be completed by 2017.

Positive to future income
We are positive on this development as future electricity demand is expected to increase based on the official forecasts. Essentially, the government forecast that GDP will grow by 6.2% p.a. in the 2010 – 2019 period (Rencana Usaha Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik 2010 – 2019). The electrification ratio is expected to increase to 91% by 2019, which translates into an implied electricity demand growth by 7% - 9% p.a. Concurrently, the installed capacity is projected to grow to 81.6GW by 2019 vs. 30.9GW currently. We expect this acquisition to generate positive future income beginning 2017. Also, it would help the group to diversify
its income base.

Forecast
We maintain our FY12-14 earnings projections as the commencement of commercial operation will only begin in 2017. Meanwhile, the capitalized interest cost shall not affect the group’s near-term profitability. In term of funding requirement, it is expected to come from the MTN issued by the group recently.

Maintain Buy on Genting
Reiterate Buy recommendation on Genting for its foreign gaming growth prospects. Our target price remains unchanged at RM11.88/share using Sum-of-Parts valuation methodology.

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