Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Supermx ... Jul12

CIMB Research ...

Results highlights
• 1Q bounces back. A 17% yoy bounce in Supermax’s 1Q12 core net profit took it to
23% of our and consensus full-year forecasts, which is in line as the remaining
quarters will be better. The 1Q yoy rise reflects lower interest cost, illustrating the
impact of financial leverage in Supermax’s model. Management’s guidance of a
20% yoy increase in FY12 core EPS was in line with our expectations. This will be
underpinned by the expansion of its surgical and nitrile glovemaking divisions. We
are maintaining our Outperform call and valuation basis of 9.8x forward P/E, which
is 25% below Top Glove’s two-year average.

• Core EPS up by 17% yoy. 1Q12 revenue rose by 3% yoy to RM249m due to
higher demand and average selling prices. Costs edged up by 2.8% to RM209m as
a result of an increase in production output. As a result, EBITDA margins expanded
by 0.1% pts and EBITDA rose by 4% to RM39m. Yet, pretax profit jumped by 20%
due to a 22% drop in financing costs. Even with a 4% pt increase in the tax rate,
core net profit still rose by 17%.

• Surgical and nitrile will underpin FY12 growth. Supermax has commissioned two
of the seven surgical glovemaking lines planned for its Sungai Buloh plant. Earnings
from this will be reflected in 2Q onwards. The remaining five manufacturing lines will
be commissioned throughout FY12. We assume that Supermax will add 28m
pairs/month of capacity in FY12, generating annual pretax profits of RM23m. In
addition, management intends to add to its capacity 5.3bn pieces of nitrile gloves
p.a., taking total nitrile capacity to 10.5bn pieces annually by end-FY13 or 52% of
Supermax’s total capacity. The cash cost of nitrile is 28% below NR, illustrating its
relative attractiveness.

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