Supermx ... Oct10

CIMB Research Investment highlights

• Maintain BUY. Last Saturday’s fire at one of Supermax’s glove factories is negative news as it is disruptive for Supermax and could inflict damage on its earnings and potentially, its reputation if the incident arose from negligence. From our checks with management, it appears that the fire will have minimal impact on production, delivery and earnings as it affected only the packing area. However, we are taking the opportunity to cut our FY10-12 earnings forecasts by 8-9% given the slowerthan-expected pass-through of high latex prices and softening demand. We also roll forward our target price to end-11 as we are now in the final quarter of 2010. This, plus our earnings revision, reduces our target price from RM9.50 to RM8.60, based
on an unchanged 20% discount to Top Glove’s target P/E of 15.2x (16.5x previously). As prospects for rubber glove manufacturers remain healthy, we continue to rate Supermax a BUY. Potential re-rating catalysts include higher earnings from the continuous demand growth and the company’s expansion.

• Fire at Lot 42. A fire broke out at one of Supermax’s glove factories in Sungai Buloh, Selangor last Saturday. The facility in question is Lot 42 which has five old production lines, two of which have been shut down for upgrading works since early this year.

• Minimal impact on production and delivery schedule. We gathered from management that all the production lines at Lot 42 are intact as the fire affected only the packing area. It is estimated that some packaging materials and work-inprogress were destroyed. The cause of fire is yet to be ascertained but sparks from
some welding works are suspected to be the cause. Management has reassured us that it can claim damages from its insurer and that the fire will not have a significant impact on production or the delivery schedule.

Recent developments
Fire at Lot 42. A fire broke out at one of Supermax’s glove factories in Sungai Buloh, Selangor last Saturday. The facility in question is Lot 42 which has five old production lines, two of which have been shut down for upgrading works since early this year.

No major damage. We gathered from management that all the production lines at Lot 42 are intact as the fire affected only the packing area of the plant. According to management, some packaging materials and work-in-progress were destroyed. The cause of fire is yet to be ascertained but sparks from some welding works are suspected to be the cause. The sparks were believed to have drifted over to the store area adjoining the loading bay where the packaging materials were kept. Thanks to the firewall between the store and the production area, the fire was well contained and did not spread to the production lines.

Minimal impact on production and delivery schedule. Management has reassured us that it can claim damages from its insurer. Furthermore, it appears that the fire will not have a significant impact on Supermax’s production or delivery schedule. Out of the five production lines, two have been torn down and will be replaced by three new lines by the end of 2010. However, for safety reasons, the plant has been shut down
for further investigation by the fire department and insurance adjustors.

Earnings outlook 
Fire will not have major impact on earnings. It is estimated that the plant could be shut down for a week. Given the annual rated capacity of 216m pieces for the three existing lines, we estimate that production could be delayed for a maximum of 4.2m pieces which is less than 0.03% of the total installed capacity of 16.2bn pieces. There will be only minimal impact on output and shipments as the three lines can use the packing facility at a nearby plant, Lot 38. Therefore, no major delays are expected.

Continuation of high latex price trend led to earnings downgrade. However, we are taking the opportunity to cut our earnings forecasts by 8-9% given the slowerthan-expected pass-through of latex prices and softening demand as customers are ordering minimal quantities in anticipation of a fall in latex prices. Latex prices remain high, prompting us to revise our FY10-12 latex cost assumptions from RM6.00-6.20/kg to RM6.00-7.00/kg.

Recommendation
Maintain BUY. From our checks with management, it appears that the fire will have minimal impact on production, delivery and earnings. But there could be a negative knee-jerk reaction for its share price, similar to that experienced by Kossan last year. As we are now in the final quarter of 2010, we roll forward our target price to end-11. This, plus our earnings revision, reduces our target price from RM9.50 to RM8.60,
based on an unchanged 20% discount to Top Glove’s target P/E of 15.2x (16.5x previously) which, in turn, remains pegged to a 10% premium over our target market P/E. As prospects for rubber glove manufacturers remain healthy, we continue to rate Supermax a BUY. Potential re-rating catalysts include higher earnings from the continuous growth in demand and the company’s upcoming expansion.