MahSing ... Jul10

CIMB Research Report Investment highlights:-

• Raising target to RM2.40 for landbank purchases. Mah Sing’s acquisition of four parcels of land with GDV totalling RM1.2bn last week exemplifies the group’s mastery of its tried-and-tested “quick turnaround” model. We are raising FY10-12 EPS by 1-9% for the new landbank and the stronger-than-expected sales achieved so far this year. This increases our 3-year EPS CAGR forecast to 18%, one of the strongest in the property sector. Our target price also goes up from RM2.30 to RM2.40, based on an unchanged 10% discount to our target market P/E of 15x. We continue to rate Mah Sing a BUY, with the potential re-rating catalysts being 1) continued strong newsflow on landbanking exercises, and 2) robust sales and accelerating earnings growth.

• Four acquisitions in a week. Last week, Mah Sing announced the acquisition of four parcels of land – two in Puchong next to Bandar Kinrara, one in Bukit Jelutong and one in Sungai Buloh. All in, it is buying 167.8 acres for RM311.6m. We take a positive view as the price tags are fair and the demand for mixed development, industrial and commercial properties in those locations should be strong. The four parcels have a GDV potential of RM1.2bn, lifting the group’s undeveloped and unrecognised GDV to RM7.5bn.

• Earnings upgrades. So far this year, Mah Sing has acquired seven land plots totalling 195 acres with a GDV potential of RM1.9bn. We are raising our FY10-12 EPS forecasts by 1-9% for the four new projects and the robust YTD actual sales. In 1Q10, Mah Sing sold a record RM601m worth of properties, meeting 60% of its fullyear target in a single quarter. At this rate, it could exceed RM2bn worth of sales in 2010 if its upcoming condominium launches in Kuala Lumpur and Penang are well received. There is further upside to our earnings forecasts if the response to its 2H launches is strong and pretax margins are wider than our projections of 20-25%.

Outlook
Last week, Mah Sing announced the acquisition of four parcels of land – two in Puchong next to Bandar Kinrara, one in Bukit Jelutong and one in Sungai Buloh. All in, it is buying 167.8 acres for RM311.6m.
The first acquisition, technically a joint venture, was announced on Monday and involved 13.2 acres of leasehold (expiring 2108) land in Kinrara at a cost of RM35.4m or RM61.57 psf. The land forms part of the 274-acre Taman Damai Utama, a matured project with more than 600 linkhouses and 100 shop/offices already handed over. The land has a GDV of RM100m and was launched in April. Out of 180 units of link homes launched, 53 worth RM29m have been sold. The land does not have any low-cost
requirements or general requirements for open spaces.

At mid-day on Friday, Mah Sing announced the purchase of a larger parcel of 125.8 acres of leasehold land adjacent to the first piece of land in Kinrara for RM178.4m or RM32.56 psf. The group intends to develop the land, to be named Kinrara Residence, into its mid-range Residence series which will be gated and guarded. The project will consist of linkhouses, semi-detached homes and bungalows priced from RM500k to RM1.8m each with a total GDV of RM730m over five years. The land has already been subdivided and major infrastructure is substantially ready.

Later that day, the group followed with the announcement of the purchase of 10.95 acres of freehold industrial land in Bukit Jelutong, Shah Alam, Selangor, for RM31.8m or RM67 psf. This land will be developed into the group’s third recent industrial project and named iParc3@Bukit Jelutong. The project has a GDV of RM82m and will be launched in 1H2011. The group will offer 3-storey semi-detached factories priced from RM3m each. Recall that Mah Sing’s first recent industrial project, the RM116m iParc@Bukit Jelutong, was sold out in six months while another recent project, the RM167m iParc2@Shah Alam, is now 80% taken up.

Also announced on Friday was the purchase of 17.82 acres of commercial leasehold (expiration 2102) land in Section U5, Shah Alam, for RM65.9m or RM84.91 psf. The land is located in the Damansara North-Subang-Sungai Buloh corridor, near to the proposed HELP University College – Subang 2 campus which can accommodate 13,000 students. Mah Sing will develop 3-storey shops, retail lots and offices including
a neighbourhood mall. GDV is estimated at RM280m and the project is expected to be launched in 1H2011 and developed over three years.

We take a positive view of the acquisitions as the price tags are fair and the demand for mixed development, industrial and commercial properties in those locations should be strong. The four parcels of land have a GDV potential of RM1.2bn, lifting the group’s total undeveloped and unrecognised GDV to RM7.5bn. Including potential upside revisions to GDVs from its various projects, particularly the mammoth
commercial project in Petaling Jaya, the group’s total GDV could approach the RM10bn mark.

Recommendation
It was reported in today’s press that Mah Sing has a three-pronged strategy for continued growth and aims to have a market capitalisation of RM5bn within five years. While the target is possible given the group’s aggressive acquisition strategy, it represents more than a threefold increase in its market cap and implies a need to further accelerate acquisitions and earnings growth. For now, we are raising our EPS forecasts by 1% for FY10, 5% for FY11 and 9% for FY12 in view of the new landbank and the stronger-than-expected sales achieved so far this year. This increases our 3-year EPS CAGR forecast to 18%, one of the strongest in the property sector. Our target price also goes up from RM2.30 to RM2.40, based on an unchanged 10%
discount to our target market P/E of 15x. We continue to rate Mah Sing a BUY, with the potential re-rating catalysts being 1) continued strong newsflow on landbanking exercises, and 2) robust sales and accelerating earnings growth.