S & P Results Review & Earnings Outlook
Hektar REIT’s 1Q10 results were within our expectations. Hektar REIT posted a 10% YoY increase in net profit to MYR10.0 mln on the back of a 5.7% YoY rise in turnover to MYR23.0 mln. The rise in revenue was due mainly to higher occupancy of 97.3% in 1Q10 vs. 95.9% in 1Q09.
Overall, on a quarterly basis, portfolio average occupancy rate has improved to 97.3% in 1Q10 from 95.8% in 4Q09. Wetex Parade in Muar, Johor posted a higher occupancy rate of 91.2% vs. 90.1% in 4Q09 while Subang Parade’s occupancy rate was unchanged at 100%. Mahkota Parade in Melaka also saw a rise in occupancy rate to
96.8% from 93.6% in 4Q09.
However, Hektar REIT posted an average 7% decline in rental reversions, due mainly to a 16% negative rental reversion in Mahkota Parade, which was undergoing a refurbishment exercise that has just been completed in April 2010. Wetex Parade posted a positive rental reversion of 6% while Subang Parade has flat rental reversion.
Hektar REIT declared a first interim 1Q10 dividend of 2.5 sen vs 2.4sen in 1Q09.
Recommendation & Investment Risks
We maintain both our Buy recommendation and 12-month target price of MYR1.40. Hektar REIT’s unit price is well supported by its high dividend yield.
Our 12-month target price of MYR1.40 was derived by applying a 9% (unchanged) discount to our DDM valuation. The primary assumptions behind our DDM valuation are a cost of equity of 8.30% - 9.50% and DPU growth of 0%-3%.
At the current level, Hektar REIT offers an attractive dividend yield of 8.3%. Moreover, suburban neighborhood retail properties normally enjoy more stable occupancy and rental income than other types of commercial properties such as offices and urban retail properties.
Risks to our recommendation and target price are: (i) a sharp and prolonged economic slowdown in Malaysia; and (ii) an unexpected rise in interest rates, which will have a negative impact on the occupancy, rental income and market value of retail properties.
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